According to the poll, 73 per cent of respondents aligned with ODM expressed support for Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi group, while only 24 per cent backed the Linda Ground faction associated with party leader Oburu Oginga.
The findings point to growing internal differences within the party over its political direction following the death of ODM founding leader Raila Odinga.
TIFA stated that many ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government.
“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government,” the pollster noted.
According to the survey, the results reflect sentiments at the grassroots level, where many Kenyans prefer leaders who are perceived to defend public interests and actively hold the government accountable.
The growing popularity of the Linda Mwananchi faction is likely to strengthen Sifuna’s influence within ODM as debate continues over the party’s future identity and political strategy.
Political observers say the survey highlights broader concerns among sections of ODM supporters who fear the party could lose its traditional opposition role if it becomes too closely associated with the government.
The split within ODM emerged shortly after Raila Odinga’s death on October 15, 2025, while receiving treatment at Devamatha Hospital.
His passing marked the end of an era for one of Kenya’s most influential opposition movements and triggered fresh succession battles within the party.
Following Raila’s death, Oburu Oginga, his elder brother, assumed leadership of the party, a move that sparked protests and resistance from some party members and leaders who questioned the transition process and future direction of ODM.
Since then, internal factions have increasingly emerged, with some leaders pushing for a stronger opposition stance while others support a more cooperative political approach.
Edwin Sifuna has remained one of the most vocal figures advocating for an independent opposition movement focused on issues affecting ordinary Kenyans, including the economy, taxation and governance.