Residents in the Rift Valley counties, the Lake Victoria Basin, and surrounding regions are likely to experience widespread rainfall during this period.
The forecast also points to occasional storms in some areas, particularly those located along the borders with Uganda and South Sudan.
The weatherman noted that these regions may experience intermittent heavy downpours accompanied by strong winds and thunderstorms, conditions that could disrupt normal activities and pose risks to communities, especially those in flood-prone areas.
Counties located east of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Kiambu, and Embu, are also expected to receive above-average rainfall.
The rains in these areas are likely to be characterised by stormy conditions and cooler daytime temperatures.
Kenya Met warned that the combination of sustained rainfall and storm activity could increase the risk of flash floods, particularly in urban centres and low-lying areas where drainage systems are often overwhelmed.
Residents have been advised to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions to minimise potential risks.
The department explained that the long rains are primarily driven by the northward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
This seasonal weather pattern plays a significant role in influencing rainfall across the region.
As the ITCZ shifts, it draws in moist air from the Indian Ocean as well as the Congo air mass.
These airflows converge over Kenya’s highlands, creating conditions that favour the formation of rain-bearing clouds and sustained precipitation across central and western parts of the country.
Experts note that such weather patterns are typical during this time of year, although variations in intensity and distribution can occur.
This year’s forecast suggests a wetter-than-average season in several regions, which could have both positive and negative impacts.
On one hand, the rains are expected to support agricultural activities, replenish water sources, and improve pasture conditions.
On the other hand, excessive rainfall could lead to flooding, landslides, and damage to infrastructure, particularly in areas that are already vulnerable.