The latest weather outlook, covering December 1 to December 31 and released on November 30, indicates a weak finish to the October–November–December (OND) short rains season, which has already underperformed in many areas.
According to KMD, large parts of the country, particularly the northern and coastal regions, are expected to continue experiencing low rainfall.
The department attributes the dry conditions to both regional and global climate factors, which have suppressed rainfall across the country despite December usually being a wetter period in Kenya’s seasonal calendar.
“Much of the country will remain dry, although we still expect isolated showers in some areas,” a KMD official said.
These sporadic rains are most likely in western Kenya and parts of the southeastern lowlands, where localized weather systems could produce brief heavy rainfall events.
The forecast comes amid growing concern over water shortages and agricultural challenges, as farmers in many regions have already struggled with below-average rains earlier in the OND season.
Reduced rainfall may affect crop growth, livestock, and water availability in key parts of the country, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas.
Meteorologists advise residents and farmers to remain alert for sudden weather changes, especially in areas prone to flash flooding during heavy localized downpours.
While the general trend points to a drier December, the occasional heavy rain could still trigger temporary flooding in low-lying zones.
Experts note that the country’s dry outlook aligns with wider climate patterns affecting East Africa, including warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and other atmospheric conditions that suppress rainfall.